4th Quarter 2017 technical paper of EU Candidate Countries’ & Potential Candidates’
“The economic recovery in the Western Balkans continued during the third quarter of 2017 with annual GDP growth at around 2.5% across the region. Private consumption and investment continued to support growth and exports seem to have regained momentum. Annualized current account deficits narrowed further in almost all countries, but overall external positions in many cases remain vulnerable,” states the EU Candidate Countries’ & Potential Candidates’ Economic Quarterly (CCEQ, 4rd Quarter 2017, a technical paper written by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affair.
The paper examines the economic growth in the countries of the Western Balkans. In the third quarter of 2017 it accelerated in some whereas it remained unchanged or decelerated in others. Economic expansion led to further job creation but at a slowing pace and with marginal or no improvement in the unemployment rate in most countries. Jobless rate still remains high. The progress in fiscal consolidation seems to be slowing down in some countries, though the high public debt levels remain a source of vulnerability in several of them.
The Western Balkans region's real GDP growth reached 2.5%, up from 2.1% in the preceding quarter, and compared to 2.8% in the same quarter of the previous year.
GDP growth rates in each country were:
- In Albania, annual GDP growth decelerated to 3.5% due to a sharp slowdown of gross fixed capital formation growth and a decline in goods exports.
- The economy of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia returned to a sluggish growth of 0.2% y-o-y after contracting in the preceding quarter.
- In Montenegro, GDP grew by robust 4.7%, with growth driven by domestic demand components.
- GDP growth accelerated to 2.1% y-o-y in Serbia, largely driven by investment and household consumption.
- According to Turkstat's estimates, real GDP in Turkey increased by 9.6% y-o-y in the third quarter.
- In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the pace of growth was also unchanged at 2.9% y-o-y, mainly driven by private consumption and exports.
- In Kosovo, annual output growth remained at 4.4%, on the back of strong investments and a positive contribution of net exports.
The technical paper consists of eight chapters, an overview and reports on each country: Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. All present findings on the following topics: key developments, real sector, labor market, external sector, monetary developments, financial sector, and fiscal developments. Explanatory tables and charts are included.
The full quarterly is available here.